The Third World War

The Bomb

  Why is it inevitable? One would say that it is due to the horrific reactions to ideological differences in the World today. The Human Rights violations the spread of Terrorism and other such ungodly acts by people. The more plausible and not so surprising reason when you think of it is right there staring everyone in the face. It is plain and simple Economics and the maintenance of the Balance Of Power in the World. If nothing is done the Control of the Developed Nations the World over will collapse and disappear. Would the Governments and Powerful people in this First World allow that to happen? You decide.

The whole point of the economic collapse they are talking about was inevitable and I have said as much in a couple of my blogs. However much the complexity of the dealings and the transactions it all started in the 50 s when the Gold standard was replaced with the GDP to evaluate money. This paved the way of the “Credit Capitalism” which essentially needs to keep the market expanding forever OR to be realistic and curb production to match the Malthusian rule of Demand and Supply. We can say the Malthusian theory is Spiritual in Nature as it recognizes and includes Natural Laws in the Economic Theory. But knowing Human Nature it was inevitable that the credit system gets over extended and it would collapse when at some point in the future it would be time to make good the extended credit. If we take an individual with a credit card it will be simple to see why it is going to collapse. One card fully extended and a second one to manage life and also pay off the EMI s of the first card which would only prevent it from being marked for full recovery and then as the credit value is still kept feasible a third card to service the first and second card and on the other hand the accumulation of Goods seeming worth the cost value, and it goes on until the first round of defaults where this guy even with the last credit card he can manage to obtain finds himself falling short to just keep the servicing of the extended credit going. Even if proceedings to repossess the Goods acquired through the extension of credit is undertaken there has to be a demand for them in the market so that at least the principle is recovered and things can go on as usual for there will be a loss only in the possible profit to be earned but the capital will still be good. Now if we imagine all of the people in the same situation of this credit card holder then we can see that there will be no market for the goods repossessed which actually have no value and no way of recovering the initial capital outlay even, leave alone the profits. The whole problem is that the value of the goods that has been manufactured and sold are Consumer Goods and their value lies in their value to be of use to a consumer and have no intrinsic value as in Gold or Silver or Land. And even these intrinsically valuable acquisitions will be valuable only after the basic needs of Food and Clothing are met. The only way the Credit Economy could function was a steady inflation so that the accumulating cost (in interests) of servicing the debt could be met. So debt rises, quantum of interests become more without a change in the rates, so rates of goods are inflated and sales are forced upon the people even without there being a demand by making them available on credit and this inflation has a cascading effect on wages which will have to be increased and then it gets caught in a vicious cycle each one fueling the increase in the other, and it goes on as long as there is a Market for the vast amount of consumer goods being produced and it goes on until the market stagnates. That will happen because the production capacity has far outpaced the consumption of these goods and all possible avenues of finding new markets have been exhausted. The stage will be set where the production will have to continue to keep the credit-ability of the industry still viable, and credits will have to be extended to keep the banks viable and inflation has to be kept going (goods have to cost more each year) and wages have to match the inflation but the cycle will get broken at a crucial link, NO MARKET. The consumers have over extended themselves not just on their earning capacity of the next year but for the next ten years which would have been okay if he would be able to service his loans but he will have to live a Spartan life, and once this attempt is made then the industries will have a zero market which will not be able to survive and this will delete the earning capacity of the consumer for he will lose the job he is holding in the very industry he is indebted to. If it was just one Industry then it can be absorbed like the Auto Industry a few years back and to Real Estate business recently, but if it happens to all of the industries then the run will start. They ignored the Auto Industry because it did not affect too many people, and for the real estate business they had to prop it up for quite a number of Banks and the Industries that were depending on these banks would have collapsed. But that has resulted in a collective debt increasing to such an extent that it has become impossible for any given debtor, be the individual, the industries as a whole, the banks indebted to their bigger brothers right up to the federal bank (which can keep the money supply only if there is an increase in GDP) or the Govt itself. The whole of the Economic System in the World depends on the circulation of money, meaning that it is available when and where there is a demand for it as in when debts are called in. But when all the debts are called in simultaneously the situation is such now that it cannot be met because without the actual money being printed (as there is no actual GDP) as the trade has taken place on the supposed GDP that would have been there ten years from now, all on credit. There will have to be defaults and it will start very slowly and in very small volumes. But it will gain incredible speeds as it will have a domino effect and within weeks industries will have collapsed and paper money will be valueless as the value is directly in proportion to the GDP which will have become nil. And once the remaining available goods have been taken off the shelves, there will be no more goods to buy and even the little available in isolated pockets will not be traded for paper money which will have nil value. The only scenario will be anarchy and chaos and rioting. Would the Consortium of Developed Countries allow this to happen? And this is where I differ from some of the economists who are predicting a lame fizzling out with hardly a whimper. They say the Governments will be unable to do anything and so will do nothing, but they are either not wanting to state a very frightening scenario or are unaware of it. There is a way out of this impasse; there is a way out of this collapse of the industries as a whole. The Third World War. All the Governments in cahoots with the appropriate rhetoric to bamboozle their own people will have to chart out a long extending – say around 3 to 4 years of WAR dividing themselves into two camps on empty ideological grounds. By the time the war is over, the population will have been reduced to manageable limits, all the goods that had been produced before the War will have become useless and there will be fresh frenzy of demand in the rebuilding process and the Industry which will have boomed in the war effort will keep booming in the aftermath. Back to Business as Usual. The scenario I foresee is much more likely than the going out with a whimper.

The reason that it is not happening right now is because of a couple of glitches. One is that with the kind of weapons that countries possess it is a bit difficult to ensure that they will be left with nothing more than a charred bone to chew on. Secondly the wild card entries demanding a share of the spoils are creating hurdles. But don’t you worry, the powers that be are seriously at work burning the diplomatic midnight oil to iron out the minor wrinkles in the application of the Ultimate “Win-WIn” solution. Its a matter of a few more months and after a period of 3 to 4 years of refreshing World War it will be back to Business as Usual.

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Why Economists are goofing up on Food Production and Supply Chains?

Why the Economists from the developed markets always goof up when it comes to global projections.

Now it is the turn of the Food Production and supply chains.

The whole system of production and of supply of food has always been on a cliff edge right from the beginning when large scales were thought of in the developed countries. They have always teetered on the edge and they have to keep in business not by establishing a segment but on constant expansion where the negatives from the previous fiscal would be compensated by more volumes and inflationary trends. This model of business is very much dependent on perceived and projected margins from a non-dependable future. This is what exactly happened in the real estate sector in the US which in turn devastated the banks which in turn brought down the viability of more modest economies of Europe for debts were called in and the downward spiral could not be absorbed without buffers. Until the government came to the rescue by infusing funds there was a threat of the whole economy of the developed country markets collapsing totally. The opening up of some third world country markets absorbed some of the shock, but there was an irrational projection for that too as these markets are little understood by western economists.

It was first done in the Automobile sector and because there was no buffer from the third world markets Detroit was totally destroyed. Then it was the real estate’s turn, nearly destroyed the whole of the western economy.

And now the same kind of methodology is now being tried in the Agricultural and Food distribution sector. China has seen a rapid expansion but India would not; due to political and conservative resistance. Right now the promise of the opening up of the Markets to this sector due to the promises of the new government in India has sent all the wheeler dealers back to the drawing board with great expansion plans and the same kind of ill placed optimism. This is going to be the final nail if it fails, and it is bound to fail due to its unsustainable and overoptimistic fundamentals. In the beginning there will be an illusion of “business as usual” for that is exactly what the new Government is hoping to project to the world business community and a seemingly fast and progressive change to “good times” for the Indian populace. But the “benefits” of this exercise; when it remains with the elite few; and hardly any trickle-down effect; is seen by the vast middle class, the main target of all markets; then there is going to be a hiccup, and subsequently breath arrest. That is the most probable scenario when you throw in the resistance to industrialized agriculture and the deteriorating quality food nutrition in supermarket chains. Add to that; the following; Indian population does, of western trends, and a penchant for the educated middle class to follow popular movements happening in the west. When the clamor for non-GMO and chemical free food and a return to organic and nutritious food gets loud enough then the Indian buyer is going to follow suit. That will be the final nail, because all the business models are being built on the perceived notion that there is huge market waiting to be tapped. As it has been pointed out recently of the Giant Chain Tesco Express in UK the sales have dipped and they are closing down more than 43 stores which are in the red and overall the sales in the top 4 chains have dipped by 5% according to Nielsen; the honeymoon with supermarkets and large supply chains is over. They will get an initial boost for surviving a few more years from the third world markets but it will just be a postponement of the inevitable.

Capitalism

Sadly it has become essential today to differentiate kinds of capitalism when in a simple world it had only one meaning. Today it is “ETHICAL  V/S  UNETHICAL CAPITALISM”. There will always be people who will try to obfuscate the meaning of capitalism and take advantage of it to loot.

There is a very big difference in making money and looting money. Capitalism as it has been defined in the philosophical and moral sense is the investment of one’s thinking power and physical effort into creating goods or services of value for exchange for a higher value corresponding to the value addition done by the one and is under no restriction on the fixation of the price of that value addition by any other, other than the one who has done the value addition. Capitalism is a natural outcome of human existence just like his eating food and drinking water. As he is a rational being and lives by the only tool of survival that he has that is the brain he does so by building a social relationship with fellow humans by trading his skill and value added creations and that is the capital he uses; his brain. The by-product of this endeavor of his to add value to his services and goods is called the instrument of exchange, and in the modern world it exists in the form of a promissory note printed on paper which is “money” There have been different instruments in different ages, like gold, silver, and even sea-shells in the hoary past. This exercise of humans is called “making” money. Anything that involves acquiring money without the exchange of value is called looting or mooching.

I have referred to the unethical practices of large corporations who seemingly give people a value in exchange for money but is far more inflated than the actual value addition, and people are bamboozled by false advertisements, force feeding  or downright political and governmental patronage or religious patronage, all unethical in a “FAIR and FREE” society.

See how difficult it is to explain? Do you know that there is enough and more food in this World produced every year and millions of tons are just wasted, and that is true even in the poor countries. This happens due to a real absence of “Freedom” and “Fair-play”. There are always victims of this but it is unfair that “children” bear the brunt of this when they have done nothing willfully to be a part of this corruption.

 

CAN MORALITY BE SEPARATED FROM ANY HUMAN ACTION? Including capitalism

It looks like I do have a serious misunderstanding of “Capitalism” as it is being understood today. I studied it as one of the various means of economic systems that various peoples through time have applied for the progress of mankind and in a narrower sense the nations. The common underlying aim of all the systems was ‘the progress of humankind’. I did not know that a separation of this underlying meaning has ceased to exist. I was under the impression that this separation was done to quantify and qualify at school and college levels to make it easier to study the mechanism of the subjects. But when that stage of the system is understood then a comparative study is made to assess the efficacy of each system towards the final goal of the system. If capitalism is a mechanism to earn money by owning the means of further creation of money by an individual then it is obviously the only system of economics that exists. It is differentiated from say a communist system because the aim of that system is not ownership of the means of money making by individuals or fascism where the ownership lies with the Dictator or with imperialism where it is owned by the king. But the ownership of the means of investment to create wealth always exists.  And when we finally come down to it capitalism is what is practiced as an economic system for the creation of wealth, whether by individuals or the commune or a dictator or a king. It is the system of investing and reaping, very simple. That is exactly why I said it is as natural to humans as breathing and eating. So why is a distinction made in dividing them into different systems? The distinction is in the individual freedom of anyone in a Democratic setup to choose to do it individually and not do it if he doesn’t want to. Unlike the other systems human beings are free to choose. But the choice also has to me made with regards to the Morality involved. If as you say Capitalism starts and ends at putting in the investment, buying the knowledge and producing the goods or services which are in demand and nothing more or less to it, then there is nothing stopping a rich person from buying heavy arms investing some more in buying mercenaries and going around collecting money by threatening and coercion, as his “business” will be to collect money and he has invested money in it and he is nothing more than an honest to god “capitalist”. That I don’t think is what you mean, As soon as you say that “that” is against the law and as soon as a person’s actions are judged then it is but natural to say that the perp’s. action was bereft of morality. You cannot separate the consequences from the action. As soon as you start judging the consequences then you start making a moral judgment. I think you are beginning to understand that there is no separation. Only a person with an intention of engaging in looting will insist that any of the “isms” carry no moral tab. and that situation is called “anarchy”

Check your premises, “civilization” is all about morality and has nothing to do with wealth, but we can always choose not be a participant in a civilized society, and that is freedom but every other man can choose in his own freedom that he doesn’t like you and kills you, that is anarchy in direct opposition to civilization, therefore if you choose to live in a civilized society then freedom means freedom to act and behave morally and not freedom to loot and rape and that is a prerequisite that guides all civilized human beings, there has never been nor is there any scope to separate morality from any action of a civilized man and that goes for “CAPITALISM” too.

Governments and the people they govern.

Through time immemorial there has been a constant tussle between the people and their Governments. It has always seemed like people are never satisfied with whatever kind of governance they have nor the actions for public benefit that they take. The basic fact is that humans have an inherent hatred of being controlled and the nature of any kind of governance is control. Ancient history reveals that the then governments would control the armies and other instruments of aggression as this would be a means of amassing wealth and if the fallout of wealth accumulation spread to the populace then things were hunky dory and such kind of fallout was cleverly allowed to happen so that there would always be a constant supply of personnel for the war efforts and accumulation of more power and wealth. Such governments lasted long and glorified as progressive benign and clever in the annals of history. But one thing is certain; any progress that happened was accidental to the process of keeping control of the power of controlling the wealth and the populace nothing more and nothing less. The age of amassing wealth through war and aggression slowly subsided and became a crime with the advent of the Industrial age. The basic tenets of governance did not change but only the means of achieving the goal; that of amassing wealth, by a few ambitious individuals and their cronies continued. Now it was economic warfare that was the tool. The transition period from open aggression to a covert one facilitated the combination of both and the end saw a few countries having taken a major portion of the pie by hook or crook and ending up as the wealthy nations of today’s world. The small section of people of these countries who govern them proved to be more ambitious and greedy than others. One can observe that Governments and Industry and Trade were one and the same through the transition period. Those few people were the ones who governed and traded and ran the industries during those times. When times started changing to a Democratic way of thinking and a clamor for freedom from overbearing and oppressive regimes started getting too loud the necessity to appear that the governments were apart from industry and trade became a compulsion. Thus in all appearances Governments seemed to separate from trade and commerce, the modern tools of aggression for amassing wealth. But in reality they have not. The tools of amassing wealth and power are still maintained by a few ambitious people who appear to be different from the Government but are just two sides of a coin. There cannot be a Government without Wealth which in turn translates to power and there cannot be wealth without industry, therefore wealth generated by industry is the only means to power and power of governance is the only means to control industry, and if anyone who tries to shake this foundation of wealth and power then that idea or individual or a group is ruthlessly thwarted and eliminated. That’s a threat to the whole fabric of modern society and has a potential to rent it asunder.
The modern tools of amassing wealth ie industry commerce and trade are the Governments of any country in this modern age. The population is allowed to believe that the Government is there to get them the best deal from the wealth producing instruments that being the Corporate World, or The Companies, or whatever they are known as in different countries. This false idea; that has been carefully inculcated into the populations; is to prevent people revolting and a situation of anarchy to prevail. Governments of all countries would like things to be industrialized and controllable, therefore even research and budgets are directed towards that. If anything that the government does helps people then it is either out of political compulsion or an accidental by product of their existence. It is a power game and if people are not aware of this then they will pay the price, tragic but true.
People like us will always be there to create awareness and churn the cauldron so that the powers that be do not take off on a runaway exercise of exploitation. Most of the people in Governments’ employment are experts at planning on devising means to convince people that they are working day and night for the sole benefit of the population. And Industry is their main poster boy. And GDP is their measure of achievement. All this has been constantly revealed about all Governments in hindsight from time immemorial, but that’s the way it is. Just being aware of it is half the battle won. And only that much is possible. And only churning is desirable; the pot should never be upturned.
If the government wins the whole battle, then there is despotism; if the people win it there is anarchy, and these are the very things that are not very desirable to have.

The Outright Lies Being Touted About Solving the Problem of WORLD HUNGER.

Can industrialized farming solve the problem of World Hunger?

Food security can be achieved by each community becoming self sufficient. This calls in for the empowerment of the small farms which take care of local needs. If you are thinking that industrialization and large scale farming will solve the problem, then be assured that it wont change anything. Just think of this; the developing countries are the ones that are suffering from food shortages. They are the ones who cannot afford to have the green revolution tech; intensive farming. The solution to that is to encourage and support small farms and reduce the costs of inputs so that they will be able to stay afloat as well as fulfill the needs of their immediate neighbors. This is possible only through Organic Farming.
The other point you have to think about is that the production of Food if taken in totality is more than enough to feed the whole world and some to spare, but even when so much of food is being produced in the world why is more than half of the world going hungry? If solving world hunger was the aim of the developed and rich countries then it can be done right now by a more equitable distribution of food, but that has never happened and never will. The newer and newer technologies that are being researched into, in the name of solving the world hunger problem is nothing but an eye wash. It is obvious that the real reason for that is to “Control” the food production and supply. If more and more farmers start getting self sufficient and local communities start getting well fed and if these farmers stop depending on the industrialized products for farming, a major source of income will suddenly dry up for the (so called) developed countries. Looking at the precarious Economy that they are perched on and after having exhausted the Market for consumer goods their attention has turned to food production. That is the last frontier that has not been industrialized. If this opportunity is taken away from them then they will have nothing to look forward to, to save their sinking economies.That is why they are fighting tooth and nail to spread myths about Agriculture, and raising the bogey of food shortages. That is why they are running scared of Earth friendly self sustainable Agriculture. It will break their powerful grip on directing the World Economy. Think of this deeply and tell me what I say does not contain the Truth.